Lunch available beginning at 12:15 PM
Speaker to begin at 12:30 PM

Between 1965 and 2015, over 12 million Mexicans have crossed the border into the United States. We use the largest survey data on this flow from the Mexican Migration Project which covers 160 thousand people observed over 50 years. We explore the predictability of about 20 thousand documented and undocumented migration decisions. We consider how predictability varies across different decision windows, time periods, and geographic regions. We also explore what failures in predictions can teach us about migration behavior and migration policy.

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